July 8, 2015

Pellucid Releases June Golf Weather Impact Report

At the national level, June came in statistically flat as Golf Playable Hours (GPH) registered down 1% vs. Year Ago (YA) at the national level. That result continued to marginally chip away at the positive Year-to-Date (YtD) results which now register +4% vs. YA. The YtD regional positive/negative breadth ratio remains positive at 5:1 with 22 regions having favorable weather against 4 regions with unfavorable weather (19 regions fell in the neutral zone of +/- 2%). Looking at YtD weather impact performance by day-of-week, favorability swung considerably stronger in weekdays vs. weekends which will likely have some impact on rounds and revenue. Looking to the year-end forecast for GPH, we saw a slight improvement with the June update but, overall, we still won’t be far off the ’14 weather and are projected to trail the 10-yr average. The supporting figures for the 2015 full-year comparative GPH for Total US, the comparison to the 10-yr average and the day-of-week breakdowns are available to Geographic Weather Impact Analysis tracking purchasers or Pellucid Publications Members via the Client Login section at the Pellucid website (go to pellucidcorp.com for information or to subscribe; for information-seekers we’ll send you a sample of the ’14 1st half actual results to review).

Looking back at May rounds played as reported by Golf Datatech/NGF to calculate the facility % Utilization Rate (UR), the flat rounds demand results (+1%) outperformed the slight decrease in GPH (-1%) resulting in the first month of Utilization gain this year (not a significant “beat” but we’ll take it). For the YtD period, rounds demand remains in positive territory but trails the positive GPH figures resulting in continued underperformance in Utilization through May. The supporting figures are also contained in the Weather Impact Tracking report or Pellucid Publications Membership monthly update.

Jim Koppenhaver comments, “The June results put us tracking for the core season (May-Sep) very closely to the ’14 results which we all remember were not stellar relative to long-term norms. That said, since the vast majority of courses budget and track against year-ago vs. long-term norms (a small number of Pellucid clients however do budget and track against the 10-yr norm relative to Utilization and Revenue-per-Available Round), weather being neutral isn’t necessarily a bad thing. The majority of weather favorability is concentrated in the Heartland while key northern geographies of the Great Lakes and Northeast are seeing neutral and negative weather results respectively compared to last year. The positive Utilization for May is a good sign, even though it’s slight favorability (both component values falling in the neutral range). What interesting to see in the May results is that the Datatech/NGF YtD rounds results (+1.6%) are diverging meaningfully from the PGA’s PerformanceTrak results (+3.7%), go figure. On the market-level Utilization front, we’re seeing some winners among Pellucid’s Top 25 impact markets with Orlando and Northern Virginia both posting 2+ pt gains YtD with the encouraging sign being both are being driven by healthy rounds increases vs. just holding steady in the face of poorer weather. On the flip side, there are several impact markets significantly lagging in Utilization led by Denver, several of the TX markets (that however is likely due to Pellucid’s metrics not capturing the significant aftermath impact of the May deluge), St. Louis and Myrtle Beach which is suffering from significant rounds withdrawal (5%+). As we’ve always maintained, beneath the national summary there is a wide and varied tapestry of local markets and their unique ups and downs.”

A broader and more detailed scorecard of the monthly key industry metrics, including the Revenue and Rate figures, can be found in Pellucid’s free digital magazine, The Pellucid Perspective. To register to get the current and future editions, go to pellucidcorp.com/news/elist, fill in the information and you’ll be registered for the next edition on 7/15/15.

Intelligent, curious and courageous industry stakeholders wanting the detailed metrics and monthly updates on weather impact at the national, regional and market level as well as utilization and the full year forecast numbers have two subscription options:

• Subscribe to the Geographic Weather Impact Analysis Tracking service ($199, 12 reports annually) or
• Subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership (Outside the Ropes monthly newsletter, 2014 State of the Industry, 2013 Industry Golf Consumer Franchise Scorecard, Geographic Weather Impact Analysis tracking, 2014 Top 25 US Golf Markets reports, Golf Participant Base Projection analysis) for $495 annually.

For individual facility owner/operators who need facility-level history, current year results by month and day-of-week and full year forecast data, Pellucid/Edgehill’s self-serve, web-delivered, real-time weather impact service product, Cognilogic, is your answer. It’s available for $240 for the year-end report and unlimited annual access via the Cognilogic web portal or $120 for a single year-end report. For more information, contact Stuart Lindsay of Edgehill Golf Advisors (edgehillgolf@msn.com) or click here Order Cognilogic.

You can order any of the above information services via Pellucid’s Online Store.

Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.