May weather made it 5-in-a-row for deficits vs. 2012 but the rate of decline shallowed as Golf Playable Hours (GPH) came in at -3% vs. Year Ago (YA) at the national level. For the Year-to-Period (YtD), the GPH comparative measure continued to improve but still rests at -17%. For the YtD period, the regional breadth ratio is negative at 1:4 with 8 regions having favorable weather against 30 regions with unfavorable weather (7 regions are in the neutral zone of +/- 2%). Looking at YtD weather impact performance by day-of-week, the unfavorable weather is now showing an almost equal balance across weekdays vs. weekends. For the full-year forecast, our May update improved slightly but still shows that we’ll give back all of 2012’s favorability and then some by December. The values for the above two metrics, the monthly timeseries for the entire year as well as market-level Utilization are available to Pellucid Publications Members via the Client Login section at the Pellucid website (go to www.pellucidcorp.com for information or to subscribe).Looking back on April rounds played, as reported by Golf Datatech, to calculate the facility % Utilization Rate (UR), rounds demand (-15%) roughly matched the weather decline (-16%) resulting in a UR level for the month of 52% which is 1 point higher than the benchmark 2012 year-end value of 51%. For the YtD period the measure is slightly more favorable with rounds declines (-15%) less than the unfavorable comparative weather (-25%) producing a UR of 58% or up a healthy 7 points vs. 2012 year-end.

Jim Koppenhaver comments, “Taking the glass-half-full perspective, the modest decline in GPH for the month of May was not as bad as it could have been given the January-April setup we’ve been given this season. On the flip side however, we desperately needed a more significant turnaround in the weather (i.e. positive year-over-year numbers) for our traditional peak season kick-off month. The positive news that I’m seeing underneath the poor weather is that Utilization is holding up well (i.e. rounds aren’t following weather linearly) and Revenue-per-Available Rounds (RevpAR) is also firmer than last year which is encouraging. Much like the housing recovery and home prices, the healthier markets this year are the ones that weren’t the beneficiaries of double-digit increases in weather last year. I still think however (and see in the forecast numbers at the market-level), that some of the high-flying markets from last year will still come out ahead on a 2-yr basis at the end of 2013 which means if they managed their cash right, the net effect will still be a plus.”

On the revenue side via the April YtD PGA PerformanceTrak numbers, they’re reporting -5% for Median Total Revenue and -11% for the Median Golf Fee Revenue component (both meaningfully better than the 16% rounds decline). Comparing the 16% decline in rounds to the 11% decline in GF Revenue produces their +3% measure on GF rate-per-played-round. Inferring Revenue per Available Round (RevpAR, or the revenue efficiency of our “factories”) by comparing the YtD GFR decline (-11%) against the GPH decline (-25%) suggests that RevpAR continues to significantly outpace year ago.

A broader and more detailed scorecard of the monthly key industry metrics can be found in Pellucid’s free digital magazine, The Pellucid Perspective. To register to get the current and future editions, go to http://www.pellucidcorp.com/news/elist, fill in the information and you will be registered for the next edition on 6/17/13.

Intelligent, curious and courageous industry stakeholders wanting the detailed metrics and monthly updates on weather impact at the national, regional and market level as well as utilization and the full year forecast numbers can subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership (Outside the Ropes monthly newsletter, 2012 State of the Industry, Monthly Weather Impact and Top 25 Golf Markets reports) for $495 annually. For individual facility owner/operators who need facility-level history, current year results by month and day-of-week and full year forecast data, Pellucid/Edgehill’s self-serve, web-delivered, real-time weather impact service product, Cognilogic, is your answer. It’s available for $240 for the year-end report and 12 month tracking or $120 for a single year-end report. For more information, contact Stuart Lindsay of Edgehill Golf Advisors (edgehillgolf@msn.com). You can now order either of the above information services via Pellucid’s online store at http://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/online-store.

Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com