At the national level, October was up slightly vs. the same month last year as Playable Hours (GPH) came in up 1% vs. Year Ago (YA) at the national level. That outcome remarkably put the Year-to-Period (YtD) results flat to one decimal point as the GPH comparative measure now registers 0.0% vs. YA. The YtD regional positive/negative breadth ratio remains positive at 3:1 with 20 regions having favorable weather against 8 regions with unfavorable weather (17 regions finished in the neutral zone of +/- 2%). Looking at YtD weather impact performance by day-of-week, weekends are up marginally vs. YA (~1%) with weekdays basically flat. Looking to the year-end forecast for GPH, the October projection continues to improve slightly vs. 2013 but it’s still showing that weather will underperform both a marginal ’13 and the 10-year average come December 31. Pellucid’s call for the 2014 full-year comparative GPH for Total US, the comparison to the 10-yr average and the day-of-week breakdowns are available to Weather Impact Tracking report purchasers or Pellucid Publications Members via the Client Login section at the Pellucid website (go to pellucidcorp.com for information or to subscribe and we’ll send you a sample of the 2014 Q1 actual results to review).
Looking back on September rounds played as reported by Golf Datatech/NGF to calculate the facility % Utilization Rate (UR), we had once again had a decrease in rounds demand results (-2%) which the month’s flat weather performance (0%) resulting in a decrease in Utilization vs. the 2013 year-end benchmark. For the YtD period, rounds similarly continued to slightly trail the flat GPH measure as they remain in negative territory (-2%) vs. neutral weather which also yields lower Utilization for the full year (net, the rounds softness is not due to weather, sorry Charlie). The supporting figures are also contained in the Weather Impact Tracking report or Pellucid Publications Membership monthly update.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, “So, once again football beats golf and favorable weather when the calendar turns to fall. Even with all the negative publicity for the NFL, it and college football are still the siren song that dampens Fall performance for producing rounds in the industry. On the positive side, we got a slight little present in October in the GPH uptick vs. last year and certain regions (like the Great Lakes) got bigger bounces so we’ll see if that translates into some much-needed late-season demand (we’re also slightly less rapid about football up here, particularly the college, variety than south of the Mason-Dixon line. At the market-level for Utilization (also included in the Weather Impact Tracking or Pellucid Publications Membership), we’ve got negative overall breadth (i.e. most markets aren’t matching marginal weather) but we see encouraging, positive performance in the key golf markets of Greensboro, Naples, Dallas and Atlanta due to various combinations of rounds and weather favorabilities.”
A broader and more detailed scorecard of the monthly key industry metrics, including the Revenue and Rate figures, can be found in Pellucid’s free digital magazine, The Pellucid Perspective. To register to get the current and future editions, go to pellucidcorp.com/news/elist, fill in the information and you will be registered for the next edition on 11/15/14.
Intelligent, curious and courageous industry stakeholders wanting the detailed metrics and monthly updates on weather impact at the national, regional and market level as well as utilization and the full year forecast numbers can either a) Subscribe to the National Weather Impact Analysis Tracking service ($199, 12 reports annually) or b) Subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership (Outside the Ropes monthly newsletter, 2013 State of the Industry, 2013 Industry Golf Consumer Franchise Scorecard, National Weather Impact Analysis Tracking, 2013 Top 25 US Golf Markets reports, Golf Participant Base Projection analysis) for $495 annually. For individual facility owner/operators who need facility-level history, current year results by month and day-of-week and full year forecast data, Pellucid/Edgehill’s self-serve, web-delivered, real-time weather impact service product, Cognilogic, is your answer. It’s available for $240 for the year-end report and 12 month tracking or $120 for a single year-end report. For more information, contact Stuart Lindsay of Edgehill Golf Advisors (edgehillgolf@msn.com). You can now order any of the above information services via Pellucid’s online store at pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/online-store.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
pellucidcorp.com
