At the national level, January registered a sharp increase vs. the same month last year as Playable Hours (GPH) registered up 18% vs. Year Ago (YA) at the national level. That outcome also represents the Year-to-Period (YtD) with only one month reported for the year. The YtD regional positive/negative breadth ratio was also positive at 2:1 with 12 regions having favorable weather against 7 regions with unfavorable weather (1 region finished in the neutral zone of +/- 2%, the remaining 25 regions are out-of-season). Looking at YtD weather impact performance by day-of-week, weekends were up sharply while weekdays also registered a gain. Looking to the year-end forecast for GPH, the initial call is up slightly vs. ’14 and basically flat to the 10-yr average. The supporting figures for the 2014 full-year comparative GPH for Total US, the comparison to the 10-yr average and the day-of-week breakdowns are available to Weather Impact Tracking report purchasers or Pellucid Publications Members via the Client Login section at the Pellucid website (go to pellucidcorp.com for information or to subscribe and we’ll send you a sample of the 2014 1st half actual results to review).
Looking back at December rounds played as reported by Golf Datatech/NGF to calculate the facility % Utilization Rate (UR), rounds demand (+1%) failed to follow very favorable weather (+24%) resulting in a sharp decline in Utilization. For the YtD period, December’s results didn’t have much impact on the Utilization value (given 11 months’ history) which finished down modestly relative to YA. In other words, weather didn’t give the industry much to work with in ’14 and we basically managed to keep pace in rounds demand to that low bar. The supporting figures are also contained in the Weather Impact Tracking report or Pellucid Publications Membership monthly update.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, “December was a significant disappoint in my book in that the unusual favorability we saw in the in-season geographies didn’t even register on the rounds demand side (I guess it could’ve been worse, rounds could have declined …). As we pointed out in the 2014 State of the Industry (SoI) presentation (Purchase 2014 SoI), ’14 played to a statistical dead heat vs. ’13 at the national level and came in just slightly off the 10-yr average. We now have the ’15 forecast at US and Regional level and the figures are included in the SoI. Returning to the January results, the Southeast had a good month while Texas and the Desert SW struggled and California had a split decision, northern vs. southern coastal. For the warm weather geographies that are counter-seasonal, this great month of January weather should be a welcome relief vs. last year.”
A broader and more detailed scorecard of the monthly key industry metrics, including the Revenue and Rate figures, can be found in Pellucid’s free digital magazine, The Pellucid Perspective. To register to get the current and future editions, go to href=”pellucidcorp.com/news/elist“>pellucid.com/news/elist
For individual facility owner/operators who need facility-level history, current year results by month and day-of-week and full year forecast data, Pellucid/Edgehill’s self-serve, web-delivered, real-time weather impact service product, Cognilogic, is your answer. It’s available for $240 for the year-end report and 12 month tracking or $120 for a single year-end report. For more information, contact Stuart Lindsay of Edgehill Golf Advisors (mailto:email@example.com) or click here href=”pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/online-store?page=shop.product_details&flypage=flypage.tpl&product_id=14&category_id=3“Order Cognilogic
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