At the national level, December registered a sharp increase vs. the same month last year as Playable Hours (GPH) registered up 25% vs. Year Ago (YA) at the national level. That outcome once again pulled the Year-to-Period (YtD) results to statistically flat (-0.1%) vs. YA. The YtD regional positive/negative breadth ratio bounced back finishing the year in positive territory at 3:1 with 20 regions having favorable weather against 6 regions with unfavorable weather (16 regions finished in the neutral zone of +/- 2%). Looking at YtD weather impact performance by day-of-week, both weekends and weekdays registered statistically similar results. Looking to the year-end forecast for GPH, the December projection came into alignment (makes sense, we should be able to predict with certainty at the end of December what the year’s results will be) with the actual results, basically flat to a marginal ’13 and slightly below the 10-year average. The supporting figures for the 2014 full-year comparative GPH for Total US, the comparison to the 10-yr average and the day-of-week breakdowns are available to Weather Impact Tracking report purchasers or Pellucid Publications Members via the Client Login section at the Pellucid website (go to pellucidcorp.com for information or to subscribe and we’ll send you a sample of the 2014 1st half actual results to review).
Looking back at November rounds played as reported by Golf Datatech/NGF to calculate the facility % Utilization Rate (UR), we had an expected cratering in rounds demand results (-8%) which beat the month’s previously-reported poor weather performance (-16%) resulting in a big upward swing in Utilization vs. the 2013 year-end benchmark. For the YtD period, the positive differential so late in the year didn’t have much impact on the Utilization value which is down modestly relative to YA. In other words, weather hasn’t given us much this year and we’ve basically managed to keep pace in rounds demand to that low bar. The supporting figures are also contained in the Weather Impact Tracking report or Pellucid Publications Membership monthly update.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, “What a difference a month makes! In November our GPH comparisons for the month were a sea of red, for December we got the other Christmas color with 16 of 24 in-season regions showing gains and only 4 registering declines (interestingly, the four negative regions are scattered across the country vs. one particular general area). Of the primary warm weather geographies, the SE coast and FL had mixed results as did the 3 TX regions (but more positive) while the Phoenix area was off slightly and CA was also mixed between North and South coastal. The good news is that the weather we were given nationally came in better than our January ’14 forecast (-3%) but, in context, we only matched a marginal ’13 and still came in below the 10-yr average for the 2nd consecutive year (after the banner ’12 which was off-the-charts good). We’ll have the ’15 forecast at the national and 45 regions level in the State of the Industry presentation which will be given at the PGA Merchandise Show on Thursday 1/22/15 at both 10:30-11:30AM and 3:30-4:30PM EST. It will be interesting to see if the forecast promises a “bounce” or a continuance of the below-average trend.”
A broader and more detailed scorecard of the monthly key industry metrics, including the Revenue and Rate figures, can be found in Pellucid’s free digital magazine, The Pellucid Perspective. To register to get the current and future editions, go to pellucidcorp.com/news/elist, fill in the information and you will be registered for the next edition on 1/15/15.
Intelligent, curious and courageous industry stakeholders wanting the detailed metrics and monthly updates on weather impact at the national, regional and market level as well as utilization and the full year forecast numbers can either a) Subscribe to the National Weather Impact Analysis Tracking service ($199, 12 reports annually) or b) Subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership (Outside the Ropes monthly newsletter, 2013 State of the Industry, 2013 Industry Golf Consumer Franchise Scorecard, National Weather Impact Analysis Tracking, 2013 Top 25 US Golf Markets reports, Golf Participant Base Projection analysis) for $495 annually. For individual facility owner/operators who need facility-level history, current year results by month and day-of-week and full year forecast data, Pellucid/Edgehill’s self-serve, web-delivered, real-time weather impact service product, Cognilogic, is your answer. It’s available for $240 for the year-end report and 12 month tracking or $120 for a single year-end report. For more information, contact Stuart Lindsay of Edgehill Golf Advisors (edgehillgolf@msn.com). You can now order any of the above information services via Pellucid’s online store at pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/online-store.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
pellucidcorp.com
